In late 2018, media outlets and social media influencers began posting claims that the US real-estate market is slowing. Fear gripped the real-estate community and not to soon after Wilmington, NC experienced a devastating hurricane. Unfortunate? Yes. But you’d be hard pressed to find signs of a “crashing” market and the numbers tell us that the market is performing well. Numbers have gone down a bit but they closely resemble 2017.
- People are still buying
Besides the sharp drop of September (Hurricane Florence) the number of homes sold remained relatively constant. The number of solds did drop, but this is more consistent with seasonal changes in buyer demand. People are out house hunting right after a hurricane in the dead of winter!
- Days on market sky rocketed after Florence, but have since returned to normal levels
One of the most important statistics for any real-estate professional is “days on market”. When homes begin sitting for months and months, this is a sign of a bad things to come. Luckily, the Wilmington market is still seeing homes with average days on market of around 70 days. Naturally homes sit on the market longer during the winter also.
- Home prices have not declined……yet
The whole “real-estate is crashing!” reports began around Sept 2018, but we have yet to see an identifiable decline in prices. Some brokers may dispute this. I myself am still seeing my listings sell for prices I use in my CMA’s. The verdict is still out on this one.
- The amount of homes on the market is INCREDIBLY LOW
Wilmington already had an issue with low inventory before, but it has even gotten worse. The cause for this issue is difficult to pin point, but it could be a combination of the hurricane and market fear. With so few listings for buyers to choose from, it would be difficult for home prices to fall.
- Record low unemployment
Regardless of your view points on the market, the main driving factor of an economy is employment. When consumers are optimistic about employment and have stable incomes, they can afford real-estate! According the the Fed, unemployment is at record low numbers.
One of the key predictors of a collapsing economy is reports of increasing unemployment and job lay offs. In my opinion, when employment tanks the real-estate market will go with it!
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis!